Nurturing Natural Allies
Yet, a more perspicacious inquiry into the Azeri history and the geopolitical situation of the former Soviet republic provides a set of parallel concerns that explains why Azerbaijan is interested in good relations with the Jewish state.
Azeri's experience
Azerbaijan - like Israel, aware of its small state status - feels threatened by a very problematic strategic environment. Geographically, it is sandwiched between two imperial powers, Iran and Russia that ruled over its territories in the past. Moreover, Azerbaijan is in a state of war with neighboring Armenia that captured a fifth of its territory and engaged in ethnic cleansing.
Azeris' experience of armed conflict facilitated their understanding of some of the dilemmas faced by Israel. In contrast to the leaders of most other former Soviet republics, the Azeri secular elite succeeded in evicting the Russian troops from its soil and adopted a cautious pro-Western orientation in its foreign policy.
The Azeris, who are ethnically and linguistically close to the Turks, have attempted to follow the Turkish model to modernization and democratization. Therefore, Azerbaijan opposes the Iranian attempts beyond the border to export their version of fundamentalist Islam.
The Israeli-Turkish common strategic evaluation
Turkey and Israel share this concern about the expansion of Iranian influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Indeed, Ankara's good relations with Jerusalem are well noticed in Baku and contribute to improve Israel's status in this country.
In many ways, the Israeli-Turkish common strategic evaluation applies also to Azerbaijan. All three wish for a strong and determined American presence, while displaying a very ambivalent attitude toward the European policies. The Europeans are reluctant to accept Turkey in their midst, and show sympathy to the Armenians and to the Palestinians. Russia is similarly viewed with suspicion because of the charged past bilateral relationships.
Ankara, Baku, and Jerusalem also have a clear interest in transporting the Caspian energy resources, including the Azeri oil, neither through Iran to the Gulf, nor via Russia. The rationale is clear: denying strategic advantages conferred by the control over oil pipelines. Therefore, they rather lent their support to the construction of an alternative pipeline, which, upon completion in 2005, will transfer the Caspian oil and gas from Azerbaijan through Georgia to a Turkish port on the Mediterranean coast, the Baku-Ceyhan route. Moreover, they prefer to see, together with many other states, the weakening of OPEC's influence in the regulation of the energy market.
There is also consensus in the three capitals that the Islamic regime in Iran is a serious source of concern. The Azeris argue persuasively that a vibrant democratic and prosperous Azerbaijan could seriously weaken Iran by serving as an alternative model for over 15 million Azeris living in North Iran.
Prevent American aid to Azerbaijan
This is obviously a self-serving argument to elicit economic and political support from the West, but it should not be dismissed. The West would only benefit from strengthening states, heavily populated by Muslims, which openly pursue democracy, a market economy, and a liberal interpretation of Muslim religious tenets.
This is why the January 2002 suspension of Amendment 907 (the US Congress decision to prevent American aid to Azerbaijan as result of the influence of the Armenian lobby) was long overdue. The Azeri willingness to support the American campaign against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and the services rendered by a small, but well- situated Muslim country, were an eye-opener in Washington. Several American Jewish organizations also played an important role in bringing about this outcome. Baku recognizes the Jewish help in Washington, just like Ankara.
No Azeri embassy in Israel
Israel has a paramount interest in forging cordial ties with states, which have large Muslim populations. Precisely because the Arab foes try to enlist the Islamic factor in their struggle against the Jewish state, Israel should try to dilute the religious dimension of the Arab- Israeli conflict by nourishing good relations with countries such as Turkey and Azerbaijan. Actually, both have a history of tolerance towards their Jewish communities, demonstrating the possibility of a fruitful symbiosis between Jews and Muslims.
So far, Azerbaijan has been hesitant to follow Turkey fully and did not open an embassy in Israel, although an Israeli embassy operates in Baku. It considered itself weak and was susceptible to Iranian pressure. Recently, Azeri officials reiterated their promises for high level-visits to Israel and the opening of an embassy.
The Azeri strategic predicament improved significantly after September 11, as the American military presence emerged in Central Asia and Afghanistan, while Iran is being placed in the "axis of evil."
Hopefully, the changing times will allow the Azeris to show more courage and they will send an ambassador to Israel. (EI/NM)
* Efraim Inbar is Professor of Political Studies at Bar- Ilan Universityand the Director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.
* This article was published by The Jerusalem Post on May May 13, 2002, Monday.
* The article is sent by ANICA Report, which is an Armenian e-magazine.
