Election Forecast: The Menderes Record

P.M. Erdogan will be the third leader joining two previous Turkish leaders Menderes and Demirel whose popular vote went over the 50 % threshold in general elections, a survey showed.

Ankara

A survey by R&G company conducted for NTV TV Channel on 7.113 people, predicted that Justice and Development Party will set a record at the March 28 elections and Erdogan will be the third leader going beyond the 50 % threshold, after (former Prime Ministers of the right wing) Adnan Menderes and Suleyman Demirel.

Erdogan's AKP got 35 % of the popular vote in the November 3, 2002 general elections. CHP got 19.41 %, DYP 9.54 %, GP 7.25 and MHP 8.35 %.

The survey led by leading researched Tarhan Erdem showed that AKP will get 58.2 % of the vote in the leading Turkish cities Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, going beyond the record set by the Democrat Party (Of Menderes) which got 57.6 % of the vote in the 1957 general elections.

No political party or independent candidate has either reached this rate in these three cities, in the local polls.

According to the survey, in the local elections of March 29:

* In Istanbul, AKP will get 58.5 % of the votes; CHP 19.1 %; SHP 5.6 %, Young Party 4.6 %; MHP 4.2 % ; True Path Party DYP 2.7 %; SP 1.7; DSP of Ecevit 1.7 % .

* In Ankara, AKP will get 68.4 % of the votes; CHP 11.7 %; SHP 11.7 %; MHP 4.2 %; GP 1.1; DYP 0.9 %, DSP 0.9 %, sp, 0.4 %.

* In Izmir CHP will get 49.5 % of the votes, AKP 33.7 %, GP 7.1 %, MHP 2.9 %, SHP 2.8 %, DYP 1.5 %; DSP 1.4 %, ANAP 0.4 %, SP 0.2 %.

If general elections were held today, the survey estimates that:

* In Istanbul AKP will get 59 % of the vote and will be followed by CHP with 16.6 % and GP with 5.1 and ethnic DEHAP with 5.1 %.

* In Ankara AKP will get 64.4 % of the vote, to be followed by CHP with 18.9 %, MHP (Nationalistic Action Party) with 6.3 % and Young Party of Cem Uzan with 2.3 %.

* In Izmir, AKP will get 46.6 % of the vote and will be followed by CHP with 29 %, GP with 9.5 % and MHP with 4.2 % (NM)