Calling Elections, Government Stalls for Time
However, the opposition wing of Parliament may reject this date. November 3 had originally been put forth by the nationalist wing of the coalition headed by Devlet Bahceli just before a wave of resignations started on July 8. The November 3 elections, though, may produce a leader as compromised as Ecevit is today.
The defections began when Ecevit, 77, refused to step down following surgery that limited his mobility. He had already declared that his government would resign if it lost its majority in the 550-seat Parliament.
After 61 parliamentarians defected from PM Ecevit's Democratic Left Party, the government majority fell below 275. The opposition and the independents have 262 seats currently, with the balance of seats unfilled. Still, the 275th vote works as an important psychological threshold. Without it, Bahceli called the government a placeholder that would prepare the country for the early polls. That status poses dangers for all players.
For defectors loyal to former foreign minister Ismail Cem, the deadline will make it hard to fully organize themselves as a new party with local branches. It also pushes the bureaucratic process of registering a new party onto a tight schedule. Ideally, Cem said, they would be ready in three months, but would try to make it in two months if necessary to comply with eligibility requirements.
Other parties face other hurdles. The leader of the pro-Islamic Justice and Development party, former Istanbul mayor Recep Tayyip Erdogan, faces investigation on corruption and intolerance charges. A judge has scheduled his corruption trial to resume on October 23, despite pleas by his lawyers to postpone the trial until after elections.
Erdogan has denied all charges and cultivated an image as Turkey's most popular politician. Like Cem, who is also quite popular, Erdogan may find Ecevit outmaneuvering him.
Turkey's secular military may fear a resurgence of Islamist politics. Turkish voters may also fear new economic strictures from the European Union, which Ecevit's government has lobbied to join. The European Union plans to consider Turkey's candidacy for membership in a December summit in Copenhagen.
Before it will welcome Turkey, the EU wants to see the Turkish parliament abolish the death penalty and make the Kurdish language available in schools. Bahceli, whose party opposes such reforms, has implicitly promised to stop blocking such reforms and asked lawmakers to pass such laws before the October. If this gambit works, Bahceli will be able to attract anti-EU votes and brand the other parties responsible for passing such laws, which he thinks, would divide the country.
Meanwhile, the constitutional process concerning the government's position and holding early elections may cause some confusion. No law requires a government to resign if it loses a majority; customarily, the Prime Minister in such a government resigns to the President, who then asks the party leader with the largest number of seats to form a new government.
Under those terms, Bahceli - whose Nationalist Action Party controls 127 seats- would start negotiations with other parties represented in the Parliament to form a new government. But few politicians seem inclined to form a party with the nationalists. A minority government could form, but Ecevit's government seems to want to sidestep these complications by holding on to power. It's unclear whether Bahceli would be able to find the 276 votes to force it to resign.
Finally, Turkish bureaucrats may not manage to assemble an election on this kind of notice. The head of the Supreme Election Board, Tufan Algan, has warned that he needs at least 100 days to properly prepare for a vote.
Apart from the legislature, the judiciary will also be in summer recess soon. The Parliament is already called to convene on September 1. However, the opposition will put forth a new proposal to make it convene in mid-summer.
Even though the only party that has objected to the November 3 date has been the radical pro-Islamic Happiness Party, the election could be sloppy or contestable if it goes forward on November 3. That could help Ecevit retain power- for a while.
All this uncertainty about timing could eclipse the political uncertainty that surrounded the latest crisis. Yet Turks and their neighbors need to worry about how this ongoing confusion will impair the International Monetary Fund's latest efforts to force economic reforms.
Economics Minister Kemal Dervis, who met with President Ahmed Sezer for 90 minutes on July 16, has become the quiet man in Turkish politics. But his role and his legacy may still resonate in Turkey's future. (MK/NM)
Editor's Note: Mevlut Katik is a London-based journalist and analyst. He is a former BBC correspondent and also worked for The Economist group.