Does Turkey have a B - Plan ?
Why? Because there is an awareness of the fact that the country will benefit immensely from the reforms accomplished whether in the end it joins the EU or not. In short, although not ready to admit it explicitly, we are really more interested in the benefits the membership process provides for our democracy and economy than the EU membership itself. EU leaders are surely aware of this.
For the reasons I discussed in my previous column, it is reasonable to expect that the European Council, having left behind the elections for the European Parliament to be held in June, having adopted the EU Constitution by then, will at the end of this year decide to start membership negotiations with Turkey in 2005, on the recommendation of the European Commission report stating that Turkey has made "sufficient progress" in fulfilling the Copenhagen Political Criteria.
Let's assume that what seems unreasonable happens, and the EU decides not to start membership negotiations with Turkey. Many people pose the question, what will Turkey do then? Does Turkey have a "B - Plan"? It is not possible to tell what plans other players have in mind, but the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has declared its "B - Plan". Prime Minister [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan has stated this plan on various occasions.
He has said: "Let's assume that we are not given a date to start negotiations. Are we going to lose because we made those reforms? We want full democracy, basic rights and freedoms, and the rule of law for this nation. Turkey will fulfill all the standards of a democratic regime either inside or outside the EU. We will continue with Ankara Political Criteria instead of the Copenhagen Political Criteria."
A negative decision from the EU should certainly not in any way be allowed to deter or reverse the reform process, and Ankara should continue to develop its foreign political and economic relations in a multi - dimensional manner without "putting all its eggs in one basket" whether membership negotiations begin next year or not, and whether Turkey in the end becomes a member of the EU or not.
And the next question: Will "Turkey with its great potentials have no problem at all in finding a new channel to flow through" as claimed by Prime Minister Erdogan.
There, unfortunately, exists no other regional integration alternative that is attractive for Turkey either from a political or economic point of view other than the EU, the fortress of peace and democracy in Europe. In the recent past, there were some people who advocated an Islamic Union, an Islamic Common Market, an Islamic NATO and an Islamic monetary union led by Turkey as an alternative to integration with the EU.
The people who raised such ideas were soon to realize themselves better than anyone else what a big illusion this was. Again, in the recent past, there were some who suggested that the "Turkic world, stretching from the Adriatic to the Great Wall" should be unified under Turkey's leadership.
By time, it became clear to all that cooperation with the Turkic states, who won their independence at the end of the Cold War, could not go much beyond projects for the transfer of Caspian oil and natural gas to Western markets.
There were also some who argued "To hell with the EU... Alliance with the U.S. and Israel is all we need." (It, of course, cannot be claimed that Turkey's exclusion from the EU won't be a boon to U.S. and Israel).
It seems unlikely, however, that there remain people who still subscribe to that argument after the events over the past year in Iraq and Palestine. And the idea put forward by Mr Erdogan in December 2002, when he was not yet the prime minister, suggesting that Turkey could join NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement) in case it was rejected by the EU looks like nothing more than a fantasy. (SA/YE)