EU Raising the Ledge; Watch Out for Catches

According to European Union enlargement expert Cengiz Aktar, the revised second draft statement on the EU's decision about Turkey prepared by the Netherlands, is more unfavorable than the first version. Netherlands holds the rotating EU presidency.

"There is only one improvement in the second draft," said Aktar. "And two unacceptable, dangerous items." He emphasized that the negotiations framework the EU is drawing for Turkey is different than that of Croatia's.

"Privileged partnership is an exaggerated fantasy"

The phrase in the draft which states, "accepting new members should not pose a danger for the bloc's integrity," is a catch, according to Aktar.

"Harsh bargains will take place until the evening of Dec. 16 when the final decision will be made," said Aktar. "The summit's final statement will be the roadmap for Turkey's EU membership process."

Granting Turkey a "privileged partnership" or a "special" status is an exaggerated fantasy, said Aktar.

"Excuse us, you are big bite"

Aktar summarized his opinions about the draft statement as follows:

* The second draft places the ledge higher. There is only one improvement in favor of Turkey. The first draft stated that nine out of the 25 members could request the suspension of negotiations with Turkey. That has been removed in the second draft.

* The negotiations framework being drawn for Turkey is different than that of Croatia. This is a new item, which is not easy to accept.

* A new phrase has been added to the 17th paragraph, which states: "accepting new members should not pose a danger for the bloc's integrity." This is a catch. When the day comes, the EU could say: "Excuse me but I won't be able to digest you. You are too big of a bite."

* I don't think Cyprus, and problems with Greece and Armenia will be obstacles in starting negotiations.

The calendar that awaits Turkey

Aktar also spoke about what awaits Turkey in the next couple of days:

* A third version of the draft will be prepared.

* It is quite possible that talks will be held with Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul over the third draft in Brussels.

* The third draft will be presented to the EU foreign ministers on Dec. 13-14. The foreign ministers will work on the draft and present it to the EU leaders on Dec. 16-17 at the EU summit. (BB/EA/YE)