‘Movement of CHP's İnce unlikely to go beyond being a mere political adventure’

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"Muharrem İnce might have launched this movement with good intentions, but it does not seem likely that it will go beyond being a mere political adventure. As for the possible reaction of the Republican People's Party (CHP) voters, I do not think that they will vote for him."

It is how Prof. Tanju Tosun from the Ege University's Department of International Relations comments on the new movement of main opposition Republican People's Party's (CHP) Muharrem İnce.

Holding a press conference yesterday (August 13), CHP's former Presidential candidate Muharrem İnce has announced that he will start his "Homeland in Thousand Days Movement" on September 4.

After İnce made this statement, it is now debated whether his movement will be an alternative to the CHP, where it will be positioned in Turkey's political spectrum and climate, whether it will turn into a fully-fledged political party and how (or whether) it will affect the next Presidential elections.

'No criticisms ideologically worthy of consideration'

In answering our question as to İnce's movement, Prof. Tanju Tosun first talks about where it will be possibly positioned in Turkey's current political climate:

"In Turkey, political movements that do not have very assertive ideological references and are not likely to be supported by voters do not have much chance if they do not have a charismatic leader. It is shown by past experiences. There was this December 10 movement, for instance... There was Mustafa Sarıgül's Movement of Change for Turkey... Even though it had an ideological reference as well, it did not have a chance of success.

"When we look at İnce's speech of yesterday, it was not really loaded and, considering his criticisms of the CHP, they were rather concerning in-party affairs. There are no criticisms ideologically worthy of consideration.

'Turkey's electorate is consolidated by alliances'

"In Turkey, politics have been confined to being against the AKP and Erdoğan. Such an understanding of politics keeps the voters where they are. You can see this very clearly among the voters of [CHP and İYİ Party's] Nation's Alliance. There is quite a consolidated electorate among them.

"For instance, 85 percent of the CHP voters do not have a second party to vote for. There is a huge majority who will not vote for a second political party if they do not vote for their own party.

"The Nation's Alliance and the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) positioned outside this alliance do politics through this opposition. Considering the current conjuncture, İnce has neither an imagination that can break down this ideological attitude nor voters who will follow it.

CLICK - What do polls say about Muharrem İnce?

"I do not think that the votes forecast by the election polls do reflect the truth. İnce getting so many votes... It is against the rules of scientific method. The reason why Muharrem İnce can get votes from a very narrow voter base is that there is a really sharp political polarization. There is an electorate consolidated by alliances in Turkey.

'If we were in the early 2000s...'

"Muharrem İnce might have started the movement with good intentions; however, it does not seem likely that it will go beyond being a mere political adventure. As for the possible reactions of the CHP voters, I think that they will not vote for him. İnce might end his travels around the country after going to a number of cities. Because a possible support for this movement could have quite a high marginal cost for the CHP.

"If we were in the early 2000s, İnce could have received votes from the then Young Party's voter base. From a group of people who do not have ideological affiliations... A group of floating voters on a quest through pop nationalism... But the conjecture in Turkey is not the same any more."

'This movement's ultimate aim is to turn into a party'

Then, what should we understand from İnce's speech yesterday?

Prof. Tosun answers this question in following words:

"I would expect that, right after his speech yesterday, İnce would share a statement on his own website, sharing details about his visions as to the society and economy. However, there are still speeches from the 2018 Presidential elections on his website. There are websites about the movement, but there is no official website. It is a well-intentioned enterprise, but without all these, there remain only slogans and rhetoric.

"İnce's speech was mostly based on in-party allegations. And they have been sufficiently responded by the CHP. The CHP -of course- could not manage the elections well back then; however, the party has learned how to do it thanks to the CHP İstanbul Organization in İstanbul elections.

"But the ultimate aim of a movement is to turn into a political party in the end. İnce has oriented it towards Presidential candidacy. It is already impossible for a movement that does not have an identity of a political party to manage a macro election such as a Presidential election. In this election as well, people make their choices based on political party references.

'The policy is based on not raising dissenting voices'

Prof. Tanju Tosun has also commented on the CHP's general condition in the wake of its recent congress and its preparation for the election:

"The system of the CHP needs to be considered separately from most parties in Turkey. It is a party that comes closer to the center and tries to catch the majority of the society; however, when we look at it historically, it also has ideological packages. When we also consider the in-party sides, it does not have a clear-cut and homogeneous position. Kemalists, social democrats, liberals are all together in the party.

"It is normal that ideological debates erupt within this structure in ordinary times. But as they all aim at shrinking the voter base of the AKP, these debates remain in the background. We saw the same thing in the congress. I think [CHP Chair Kemal] Kılıçdaroğlu and the party administration reserve such ideological debates for a possible term in government.

"In the run-up to power, the policy is based on keeping the moderate differences together as much as possible and avoiding raising dissenting voices. The CHP is a political party which is formed by historical balances, there are sectarian ties, there are ideological ties, there are ties arising from being compatriots. The party administration is pursuing a balancing strategy among all these ties. It is understandable that social democrat parties have such ties. It is suitable for the Zeitgeist.

'...before and after Ekrem İmamoğlu'

"In considering the CHP's possible strategy for the next Presidential election, we need to differentiate between the pre-İmamoğlu and post-İmamoğlu periods. [Former AKP senior officials] Ali Babacan and Abdullah Gül are also not so important cards to consider to win the election.

"As for [İstanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem] İmamoğlu, he is a figure who can receive votes from the CHP and different segments of the society, he appeals to the intersection of the society. The candidacy of İmamoğlu can be discussed within the party, rather than that of Babacan or Gül. Neither the voter base nor the in-party elements will object to this." (AS/SD)