Poll: Four possible opposition candidates lead Erdoğan, economic crisis most urgent problem
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The Yöneylem Social Research Center has released the results of its monthly opinion poll for June.
The survey was conducted among 3,040 people in 230 locations in 27 provinces between July 26-30.
Here are the results of the survey:
Election polls
Turkey's next presidential and parliamentary elections are scheduled for June 2023.
If no presidential candidate gets "50 percent plus one" votes, the second round of election is held.
The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) form the People's Alliance and the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and the İYİ (Good) Party form the Nation's Alliance.
Parliamentary elections
• If there was a parliamentary election this Sunday (%):
AKP: 28.5
CHP: 23.2
Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP): 7.5
MHP: 5.4
İYİ Party: 10.8
Felicity Party (Saadet): 0.6
Future Party (Gelecek): 0.3
Democracy and Progress (DEVA) Party: 1
Other: 3.0
Undecided: 11.5
Won't cast a vote: 8.1
• After the undecided and non-voters distributed:
AKP: 34,6
CHP: 28,4
HDP: 9,2
MHP: 6,9
İYİ Party: 14,3
Saadet: 0,8
Gelecek: 0,4
DEVA: 1,4
Workers' Party of Turkey (TİP): 0,7
Memleket: 0,4
Other: 2,9
Alliances
• When asked for which alliance they will vote, the participants responded:
Nation's Alliance: 37.7
People's Alliance: 36.8
Not going to vote: 8.1
Undecided: 2.5
A party outside of the alliances (HDP, DEVA, Saadet, Gelecek, TİP, etc.): 14.9
Presidential election
• Will you vote for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan if he competes in the next presidential election?
Never: 55
Absolutely: 33
I may or may not: 10
I won't cast a vote: 2
Erdoğan vs. any opposition candidate
Erdoğan: 35.6
Opposition candidate: 50.5
Undecided: 7.7
I won't cast a vote: 4.8
No answer: 1.3
Erdoğan vs. CHP Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu
Erdoğan: 40.6
Kılıçdaroğlu: 41
Undecided: 4.5
Non-voter: 13.1
Erdoğan vs. İYİ Party Chair Meral Akşener
Erdoğan: 40.1
Akşener: 44.2
Undecided: 4.1
Non-voter: 10.8
Erdoğan vs İstanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu of the CHP
Erdoğan: 39.2
İmamoğlu: 48.5
Undecided: 3.4
Non-voter: 8.1
Erdoğan vs Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş of the CHP
Erdoğan: 36.6
Yavaş: 52.8
Undecided: 3.8
Non-voter: 5.9
Who will win the presidential election?
Erdoğan in any event: 40.9
The opposition if it picks the right candidate: 30.6
The opposition in any event: 20.1
I don't know: 8.0
No answer: 0.4
Governance
• How do you think Turkey is governed?
It is badly governed: 58.3
It is neither well nor badly governed: 16.8
It is well-governed: 23.3
I don't know/No answer: 1.6
• Snap elections
Should be held: 53.4
Should not be held: 38.4
Undecided: 5.9
No answer: 2.3
• Who will have the parliamentary majority?
Nation's Alliance: 43.6
People's Alliance: 40.6
I don't know/No answer: 15.9
Voters' stance towards the opposition
• Have your thoughts on the opposition parties' policies/discourse changed positively or negatively in the past year?
Positively: 41.9
Negatively: 35.3
No change: 17.6
No answer: 5.2
• Who would govern the economy better?
The government: 33.5
The opposition: 42.4
Neither: 10.4
Undecided: 6.5
I don't know/No answer: 7.1
• Would the government or the opposition better protect the democratic order, rights and freedoms?
The government: 32.8
The opposition: 49.4
Neither: 6.8
Undecided: 5.7
I don't know/No answer: 5.5
• Who do you think would respect the lifestyle of everyone more?
The government: 35.3
The opposition: 51.2
Neither: 3.9
Undecided: 4.8
I don't know/No answer: 4.8
• Who do you think would govern the country better?
The government: 36.2
The opposition: 47.1
Neither: 6.4
Undecided: 5.5
I don't know/No answer: 4.8
• Do you think social assistance would be reduced if the government changed?
Yes: 31.8
No: 55.7
I don't know/No answer: 12.5
• Do you think the headscarf ban for women would be brought back if the government changed?
Yes: 25.9
No: 69
I don't know/No answer: 5.2
Most urgent problems of Turkey
Economic crisis, lack of production: 45.1
Unemployment: 19.4
The coronavirus pandemic: 16.6
Inflation, high cost of living and livelihood difficulties: 11.6
Injustice and courts' unlawful decisions: 9.4
Problems in the education system: 8.5
Syrian and Afghan refugees: 8.5
Mismanagement of the country: 8.5
Slaughter of the nature and slaughter of animals: 4.8
Problems in the healthcare system: 2.5
Terrorism: 2.4
Political polarization: 1.4
The incapability of the opposition: 1.1
Violence against women and feminicides: 1.0
Restriction of freedoms and human rights problems: 1.0
The Kurdish problem: 1.0
Problems in agriculture: 0.9
Corruption and stealing: 0.9
Discrimination and partisanship: 0.5
Problems of shopkeepers: 0.4
Other: 10.2
The economic situation of households
• Do you have a person that is looking for a job or unemployed in your household, including yourself?
Yes: 51.2
No: 48.7
• Did you fail to pay a bill or meet a vital need in the past month?
Yes: 47.6
No: 52.3
Turkey's presence in Afghanistan
• Do you approve of Turkey's sending soldiers to Afghanistan and undertaking the duty of running and securing the Kabul airport?
Yes: 26.2
No: 63.9
I don't know/I have no idea: 9.8
İstanbul Convention
• Do you approve of Turkey's withdrawal from the İstanbul Convention?
Yes: 31.7
No: 56
I don't know/I have no idea: 12.3
• Among women respondents:
Yes: 28.5
No: 58.4
I don't know/I have no idea: 13.2
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan issued a decree to pull Turkey out of the İstabul Convention, a Council of Europe treaty on combating violence against women, on March 20. Turkey officially withdrew from the convention on July 1.
Canal İstanbul
• Do you support or oppose the construction of Canal İstanbul?
I support: 31.9
I oppose: 53.7
No answer/I don't know: 14.4
Canal İstanbul is a planned artificial waterway running parallel to the Bosphorus strait. https://bianet.org/konu/canal-istanbul
Guaranteed payments for PPP projects
• Do you support the opposition's idea that roads, bridges, airports and city hospitals, which were built with a guaranteed number of vehicles/passengers/patients?
I support: 64.9
I oppose: 27.1
No idea/I don't know: 8
Public officials having multiple salaries
• For a while, it has been claimed that many bureaucrats who have been appointed to various positions by the government receive more than one salary. Are you aware of these claims?
Yes: 63.5
No: 31.5
I heard of it but I don't have adequate information to evaluate it: 4.7
No answer: 0.2
• Do you think it is right for bureaucrats to receive more than one salary?
Yes: 4.3
No: 93.7
No idea/I don't know: 2
(HA/VK)