Poll: Erdoğan loses to the right candidate; Kurds, HDP are key to the election

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The MetroPOLL research company shared the results of its April 2022 survey with the public yesterday (May 3).

The results show that several political parties may not be able to pass the 7-percent electoral threshold when the rates of those who say they are "undecided" or "cast a protest vote" are not distributed.

According to the survey results, if there were Parliamentary elections in Turkey this Sunday, 25.2 percent of the respondents would vote for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and 17.6 percent would vote for the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).

While 14.6 percent would vote for the İYİ Party, 9.7 percent would vote for the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) and 5.7 percent of the respondents would vote for the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

When the rates of those who are undecided, will cast a protest vote or prefer not to give an answer are distributed, the voting rate of the AKP rises to 32.1 percent, that of the CHP to 22.4 percent, the İYİ Party to 18.6 percent, the HDP to 12.3 percent and the MHP to 7.3 percent.

'Yavaş can get 70 percent of Kurds' support'

Prof. Özer Sencar, the owner of the MetroPOLL, has spoken to Dilek Gül from Euronews about the survey results.

Commenting on the poll, Prof. Sencar has said that the last poll has eliminated the general opinion that Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of the opposition-led Ankara Metropolitan Municipality, cannot receive votes from the Kurdish electorate: "70 percent of the HDP voters say that they will support Mansur Yavaş in the event that he runs in the Presidential elections."

Moreover, the results of the latest poll conducted by the company for its subscribers, but leaked to the press have shown that Ankara Metropolitan Mayor Mansur Yavaş would win the Presidential elections by a significant margin if he competed with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

If  MansurYavaş and jailed former Co-Chair of the HDP Selahattin Demirtaş ran in the elections, Yavaş would get 44 percent of the votes while Erdoğan would receive 34.4 percent and Demirtaş 13.3 percent.

If İstanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu ran in the Presidential elections, President and AKP Chair Erdoğan would receive 37.5 percent of the votes, İmamoğlu 36.2 percent and Demirtaş 13.8 percent.

If İYİ Party Chair Meral Akşener was nominated, Erdoğan would get 38.6 percent, Akşener 34.2 percent and Demirtaş 16.3 percent.

If CHP Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu ran in the Presidential elections, Erdoğan would receive 40.1 percent of the votes while Kılıçdaroğlu would receive 30.2 percent and Demirtaş 15.2 percent in the first round.

In the second round of elections?

If none of the candidates gets more than half of the votes, there will be a second round of Presidential elections scheduled for 2023.

In such a scenario, Erdoğan would be defeated by all four candidates, according to the survey results of the MetroPOLL.

If Yavaş and Erdoğan competed:

▶ Yavaş would get 53.9 percent; Erdoğan 36.5 percent; floating and protest votes would stand at 9 percent. 

Yavaş would get HDP votes in the second round:

▶ Yavaş has the potential to get 73.2 percent of votes from the HDP voters and 23.1 percent from the MHP voters.

If Erdoğan and İmamoğlu competed:

▶ İmamoğlu would get 49.7 percent; Erdoğan 40 percent; floating and protest votes would be 9.8 percent. Erdoğan would get 82.6 percent of the HDP votes and 8.3 percent of the MHP votes, the survey has shown.

If Erdoğan and Akşener competed:

▶ Meral Akşener would receive 43.8 percent of the votes; Erdoğan 41.9 percent; floating and protest votes would stand at 13.7 percent.

If Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu competed:

▶ Kılıçdaroğlu would get 43.3 percent while Erdoğan would get 42.5 percent; floating and protest votes would stand at 13.5 percent.

(AEK/SD)