‘Turkey has to cut its emissions by 80 percent to reach net zero target’

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After Turkey became a party to the Paris Climate Agreement and adopted the motion foreseeing the ratification of the agreement, it has declared that it will reach its "net zero emissions" target in 2053.

According to a statement released by the Ekosfer (Ecosphere) Association, in order for Turkey to reach its zero emissions target by the declared year, it needs to reduce its current greenhouse gas emissions from 506 million tons to around 100 million tons in 32 years. As for the remaining 100 million tons, it will need to be absorbed by carbon sinks such as forests.

However, Turkey's current pledge as part of the Paris Agreement allows the country's emissions to increase to 929 million tons at most in 2030.

Recalling that Turkey has not made any declarations about a possible coal phase-out, the association has noted that "there are doubts as to whether the target set for the year 2053 is real or not."

While Turkey's current total greenhouse gas emissions stand at 506 million tons, if the increase in emissions continues and the total emissions reach the level of 900 million tons, then, Turkey will need to cut its emissions by 800 million tons in 23 years for its "net zero emissions" target.

PARIS AGREEMENT: The Paris Agreement is an agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), dealing with greenhouse-gas-emissions mitigation, adaptation, and finance, signed in 2016. Its goal is to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels.

Carbon sink capacity: Only 84 million tons

Considering that Turkey's carbon sink capacity was 84 million tons by the end of 2019, Turkey's net greenhouse gas emissions is 422 million tons.

On the one hand, the total sink capacity of the country may be expected to increase to 100 million tons in 2053 as it increased to 100 million tons in 2015 and 2017; on the other hand, even if it indeed happens, Turkey will need to cut its emissions by over 400 million tons in 30 years.

NOTE: Turkey's total amount of greenhouse gas emissions was 220 million tons in 1990.

'It needs to be reduced by 80 percent'

Commenting on these findings and calculations, Ekosfer Association Executive Board Member Özgür Gürbüz has underlined that Turkey's emissions need to be reduced by 80 percent in order for the set zero emissions target to be met by 2053, as it has been declared.

Underlining that "as long as the increase in emissions continues, it will be harder to reduce them," Gürbüz has said, "We do not know based on what study or report the 2053 net zero target has been set."

"If we are to take this target seriously, we need to schedule the coal phase-out, put an end to the policies of transportation based on highway and airway and transfer the resources spent for nuclear energy to renewable energy and energy efficiency without losing time," Özgür Gürbüz has noted, warning that "otherwise, the 'net zero' target will turn into a 'net dream' target in a few years and be forgotten."

What is net zero emission?

Net zero emission basically means that all human-​made greenhouse gas emissions must be removed from the atmosphere through reduction measures as well as by means of natural and artificial sinks.

What about Turkey's target?

Turkey signed the Paris Climate Agreement in 2015; however, it did not ratify or become a party to the agreement after 2016, when it came into force. In this process, the country presented its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). While Turkey has recently ratified the Paris Agreement, it has not made any updates in its NDC, which foresaw that the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced from 430 million tons in 2012 to 929 million at most by 2030.

In other words, it did not promise that it would reduce the emissions, but that it would increase them by more than two times. If Turkey had ratified the Paris Agreement, it would have had to reach this target.

While Turkey's emissions stood at 506 million tons in 2018, they are expected to be around 700 million tons by 2030 even without any measures taken. (TP/SD)