Erdoğan is 'flexing muscles'

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*This article was published in the Yeni Yaşam newspaper on April 28 and translated into English by bianet editors.

Show of force, or "flexing muscles" as colloquially said, is among the standard strategies of all power holders — be it humans, animals, individuals or communities, or companies or states — who think their power is under threat to deter their opponents. It encompasses all practices of violence, from flexing to acting superior, spreading myths of power and might, showing aggression at unexpected moments, and, finally, directly using force, hitting, smashing and killing.

It is possible to see a certain reasoning, a strategy of "flexing muscles" lying behind the Erdoğan regime's successive moves over the past week that seem to be disconnected at first sight, all of which are reasonless, disproportionate, exaggerated and inconsistent and foolish in all aspects.

Yes, over the past year, the Erdoğan regime has steered toward the West with the Ukraine war; started to improve its military relations with the US; established agreements with Germany about alternative energy lines to Russia's gas; thus, ensured a new emplacement of power where the external dynamics will work in favor of, or at least will not work against him in his power struggle. However, these will have no use for the regime in stopping the recession in Turkey's economy and preventing the increasing inflation and unemployment and the collapse of the middle class in the next two years, when the shrinkage in the capitalist world economy seems to continue.

In these conditions of global recession, while Erdoğan's economy management aimed at protecting and favoring his own class power bases embodied in "the gang of five" is accelerating the social collapse, it is also making the raging minority coiled up around the Palace and the AKP even more greedy. The inequality, injustice and exploitation arising from this is constantly feeding the atmosphere of rebellion. This general economic collapse is bringing the demands of the Kurdish opposition in the North closer to the general opposition and making its class bases more and more evident.

It makes no sense to think that the AKP chiefs do not see that the public opinion polls reflect a picture close to reality. They see it, and, for the first time since 2015, they really feel that their power is in jeopardy. The feeling that losing the power in the circumstances where political Islam is going upside down everywhere will have no return makes the 2023 elections a matter of "survival" not only for the AKP but also for the MHP and the Ergenekon, which are on its shoulders.

"Power is under threat" is not just intuition, it is certain information. The Kurds come first. They will determine the outcome. For this reason, Erdoğan should flex muscles in Kurdistan, make the soldiers feel that he is taking revenge of the defeat in Garê, break the confidence of the Kurds and the elites of Kurdistan should be deterred from settling in the opposition axis in the political equation. Though flexing muscles and raging against the Kurds and frightening myths are no longer useful. The coin of the realm there is direct violence.

This was the main reason for the "Zep operation" that was launched last week. Since it would not be possible to establish a permanent colony in Southern Kurdistan would be out of question, the "targets" assumed to be predetermined would be attacked, a pipeline would be blown up as a justification, leading figures would be eliminated, and power would be shown.

Looking at the course of events, things once again did not go as planned. The "patriots" in the South exposed the conspiracy. Thus, the "cross-border" operation had to start without a reason. The resistance was more powerful than it was thought to be, and the casualties were higher than predicted. As transport helicopters return with the bodies, the suspicion of illegal weapons and chemical use is rising once again.

The "Gezi Trial" was another indication that the regime would spare no expense in using force to suppress the atmosphere of rebellion. The only explanation for sentencing the opposition elements that they captured to "aggravated life imprisonment" by the AKP militants they recruited from the streets and put robes on is "making an example of them." If there was the enthusiasm of a "New Gezi" in the hearts, it should die before it was born; but a new enthusiasm is born.

The "attempted lynch" against Garo Paylan on the grounds of Genocide was, similarly, nothing but roaring to the nationalist-conservative segment that "We are here." It did not yield any other result other than strengthening the opinion that the genocide existed.

However, these are just the opening moves. It is almost certain that 2022-23 will be full of similar attempts, the number and violence of which will increase. So far, it has not been seen that the addressees of these poor demonstrations of power were frightened by Erdoğan's "muscle flexing." Yet, no matter how pathetic and botched they are, violence hurts lives and does damage. So, more than not being frightened from "muscle flexing" is needed for an effective opposition. Before anything else, there is a need for a strong and rehabilitative solidarity with symbols, principles and notions with those who are made targets.

The way to circumvent Erdoğan's "muscle flexing" it to join forces with the Kurds' fight for freedom, the emancipatory demands that Gezi brought to Turkey's squares, and the will to confront the genocide and embrace those who are in dungeons without discriminating any of them. (AEK/VK)